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  • Writer's pictureJason Tuvia

Fed Resumes Rate Increases, Citing Core Inflation and Job Market Strength

Updated: Aug 18, 2023

In the ever-evolving economic landscape, staying informed about key developments is essential for understanding market dynamics. In this blog post, we dissect recent events, from the Federal Reserve's rate hikes to shifts in inflation and consumer spending.

Fed Resumes Rate Hikes After Brief Hiatus

The Federal Reserve's decision-making has been in the spotlight recently. On July 26, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced a 25-basis-point increase in the fed funds rate, ending a nearly three-month hiatus. The rate now stands at a lower bound of 5.25 percent. This move follows a pause in June, during which the FOMC chose to assess the repercussions of previous rate hikes. The Fed emphasized the robustness of labor markets, highlighting the addition of 209,000 jobs in June and the consistently low unemployment rate of 3.6 percent. Acknowledging the importance of wage growth in inflation dynamics, the Fed suggested that some labor market softening would be required to achieve its target annual price increase of 2.0 percent.

Inflation Trends in Focus

Inflation remains a key concern, and recent data shed light on its trajectory. In June, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.0 percent annually, marking the lowest gain since early 2021. This deceleration was primarily attributed to declining energy prices, which have been stabilizing after a period of sharp increases due to geopolitical uncertainties. The Core CPI, which excludes food and energy components and is closely monitored by the Fed, showed a somewhat higher increase at 4.8 percent. While this figure is a key determinant for Fed policy, it was still notable that June's increase was 50 basis points lower than the previous month's gain and 20 basis points below consensus forecasts.

Fed's Data-Dependent Approach Continues

The Federal Reserve reaffirmed its data-dependent approach to policymaking. With a 100-basis-point increase in interest rates since the beginning of the year, the Fed has shifted to a more measured pace compared to the substantial hikes observed in 2022. Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized that future rate hikes would be influenced by the annual pace of inflation returning to the target level. However, the FOMC refrained from providing specific numerical guidance for September's meeting, indicating that upcoming policy decisions would hinge on macroeconomic conditions observed over the next couple of months.

Labor Agreements and Supply Chain Normalization

Labor agreements have played a role in supply chain normalization. The Pacific Maritime Association and International Longshoremen and Dockworkers Union reached a contract resolution in June, ending an 11-month dispute that had caused disruptions at West Coast ports. Such logistics challenges had contributed to inflationary pressures post-pandemic. Similarly, United Parcel Services and Teamsters averted a strike with a pre-deadline agreement in July. The resolution of these labor disputes is expected to contribute to smoother supply chains and help mitigate inflationary impacts.

Consumer Spending Slows Despite Strong Labor Market

While the labor market remains strong, consumer spending has shown signs of moderation. In the second quarter, consumer spending increased by 1.6 percent, a notable deceleration from the 4.2 percent gain observed in the first three months of 2023. This trend might intensify as the effects of recent rate hikes become more pronounced. Additionally, reduced discretionary spending could also put pressure on wage growth within the retail and hospitality sectors.

Navigating a Complex Economic Landscape

As economic indicators ebb and flow, it's crucial to monitor the pulse of the economy. The Federal Reserve's rate hikes, inflation trends, and shifts in consumer behavior all interplay to shape the financial environment. By staying informed and understanding the implications of these developments, individuals and businesses can better navigate the complexities of today's economic landscape.

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